Climate models have been key for assessing the impact of climate change and simulating future climate scenarios. The machine learning (ML) community has taken an increased interest in supporting climate scientists' efforts on various tasks such as climate model emulation, downscaling, and prediction tasks. Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models. However, both the climate science and ML communities have suggested that to address those tasks at scale, we need large, consistent, and ML-ready climate model datasets. Here, we introduce ClimateSet, a dataset containing the inputs and outputs of 36 climate models from the Input4MIPs and CMIP6 archives. In addition, we provide a modular dataset pipeline for retrieving and preprocessing additional climate models and scenarios.

Things to Do in L.A. Tap to enable a layout that focuses on the article. This is read by an automated voice. Please report any issues or inconsistencies here . The Trump administration is moving to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a leading climate and weather research institution in Boulder, Colo. NCAR's weather forecasts, climate models and atmospheric data are vital to research, emergency planning and industries from aviation to insurance.

AI-based climate and weather models have rapidly gained popularity, providing faster forecasts with skill that can match or even surpass that of traditional dynamical models. Despite this success, these models face a key challenge: predicting future climates while being trained only with historical data. In this study, we investigate this issue by analyzing boreal winter land temperature biases in AI weather and climate models. We examine two weather models, FourCastNet V2 Small (FourCastNet) and Pangu Weather (Pangu), evaluating their predictions for 2020-2025 and Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2 (ACE2) for 1996-2010. These time periods lie outside of the respective models' training sets and are significantly more recent than the bulk of their training data, allowing us to assess how well the models generalize to new, i.e. more modern, conditions. We find that all three models produce cold-biased mean temperatures, resembling climates from 15-20 years earlier than the period they are predicting. In some regions, like the Eastern U.S., the predictions resemble climates from as much as 20-30 years earlier. Further analysis shows that FourCastNet's and Pangu's cold bias is strongest in the hottest predicted temperatures, indicating limited training exposure to modern extreme heat events. In contrast, ACE2's bias is more evenly distributed but largest in regions, seasons, and parts of the temperature distribution where climate change has been most pronounced. These findings underscore the challenge of training AI models exclusively on historical data and highlight the need to account for such biases when applying them to future climate prediction.

The validation of global climate models is crucial to ensure the accuracy and efficacy of model output. We introduce the spherical convolutional Wasserstein distance to more comprehensively measure differences between climate models and reanalysis data.

Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models.

Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and analyses of its causes and effects. Machine learning has the potential to quickly emulate data from climate models, but current approaches are not able to incorporate physically-based causal relationships. Here, we develop an interpretable climate model emulator based on causal representation learning. We derive a novel approach including a Bayesian filter for stable long-term autoregressive emulation. We demonstrate that our emulator learns accurate climate dynamics, and we show the importance of each one of its components on a realistic synthetic dataset and data from two widely deployed climate models.

We present ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research.

Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models.